000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070834
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 7 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through0730 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 120W from 15N to 02N, moving W at 5 to10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12Nbetween 110W and 120W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 13N86W to 11N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N and east of 108W. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 13N and west of 135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California supports mainly moderate NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters, primarily south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. North of Punta Eugenia, gentle winds and seas of 6-8 ft due to NW swell prevail. The highest seas are noted in the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are present in the Gulf of California.
Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf ofTehuantepec, gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the Gulfof Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at times.
For the forecast, mainly moderate NW-N winds will continue off Baja California through early next week. The decaying NW swell will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California today, with seas peaking to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh winds will push through the mountain gaps and reach the Gulf of California in the night and morning hours during the nextfew days. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of SW and southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to near 5 nm at times.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual climatological position for this time of the year. This results in moderate SW-W winds in the offshore waters of Central America. SW swell produces seas of 6-8 ft across the area described. Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the equator.
Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala andEl Salvador due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.
For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow willcontinue across the Central America and Colombia offshore watersduring the next several days. This will continue to enhance the convection across the region. Light to gentle winds will prevailnorth of 10N, while moderate winds are expected south of 10N forthe next few days. Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities mainly over the northern Central American offshore waters for the next couple of days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1022 mb high pressure system is centered near 31N137W and continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with a surface trough extending from 30N121Wto 24N123W support gentle to moderate winds north of 24N and west of the trough. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft due to northerly swell. The highest seas are near 30N126W.
Farther south, moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring from the ITCZ to 24N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also noted south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while weakening slowly over the next couple of days. Large NW swellwill gradually decay as it propagates across the northern waters,and seas will subside below 8 ft Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-9 ft will continue across the eastern EPAC and expand into the central waters near and south of the monsoon trough into the weekend.
$$Konarik
